Mapping Heat Vulnerability

Missoula, Montana

Featured image for the project, Mapping Heat Vulnerability

Image courtesy of Destination Missoula

Description

The community of Missoula, Montana is a small, growing city that serves as a regional center for the Western portion of the state. Residents of Missoula are forward-thinking, outdoor-oriented people. The surrounding area is populated by ranching communities.

The city of Missoula is experiencing longer and hotter summers. Preliminary climate projections from the Montana Climate Assessment (to be completed in 2017) indicate that the state will experience a 2-5oF increase in mean air temperature over the next 20-30 years.

Increased summer temperatures disproportionately affect vulnerable populations, i.e. low income households, children and the elderly. Impacts include extended periods of poor air quality leading to decreased physical and mental health, the new reality and burden of summer cooling costs, and economic impacts from tourism losses. In response, Missoula would like to identify heat islands throughout the city to address priority areas for urban forest regrowth and expansion, and improvements to the built environment.

The primary deliverables for this project will be a heat map and adaptation recommendations. Data-driven recommendations will help guide future planning efforts and resource allocation in Missoula.

Following completion of the project, Missoula will continue to build on the work by collaborating with city foresters to improve the city’s urban forest and built environments. This project will be shared with the TEX community so that other communities may benefit from the developed methodology and results.

This work extends and enhances the work started with Missoula’s Summer Start program, which is a collaborative project to prepare the community to thrive amid increasing summer wildfire smoke and heat by helping Missoulians to be physically, mentally, and economically healthy and resilient.

Project Team

Community Leads

Chase Jones
Energy Conservation and Climate Action Coordinator, City of Missoula 
(Biography coming soon!)

 

Amy Cilimburg helped launch Climate Smart Missoula in 2015 and now, as Director, works to strengthen connections, initiate new programs, and build a resilient community. She’s worked on climate and energy policy at the local, state and federal levels for the past decade, as a program director with Montana Audubon and by volunteering to help develop Missoula’s Climate Action Plans. She has a MS in Wildlife Biology from the University of Montana.

 

Scientific Partners

Anna Klene is a professor of climatology in the Department of Geography at the University of Montana. Her research interests include the interactions between climate and geomorphology in Arctic and alpine environments, including examining impacts of the urban heat island in Barrow, Alaska. She serves on the Board and teaches courses for the Climate Change Studies Minor and the GIS Sciences and Technologies Certificate. She also serves on the Graduate Faculty of the Systems Ecology Program.

 

Ashish Sharma is a Research Assistant Professor at the Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering & Earth Sciences and the Environmental Change Initiative at the University of Notre Dame. Sharma received his Ph.D. in Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering in 2012 from Arizona State University with a focus on studying rainfall in semi-arid regions.

His research focuses on fundamental science questions at a range of spatial scales (regional to local) related to studying climate processes, developing better parameterizations for land- atmosphere and ocean-atmosphere interactions. He creates a new generation of high-resolution climate models capable of resolving relatively small-scale processes and impacts in a sufficiently physically based way that they can be used for future climate and air quality predictions with increased confidence. He performs targeted dynamical downscaling experiments with the overarching goal of creating “bridges” between global, regional and micro-scale modeling.

Sharma also performs applied research in evaluating climate extremes and its impacts on regional and local climate to inform city and conservation planners ways to increase the resiliency of the human and natural systems. For example, how urban ecological systems like community gardens, green roofs, low impact development areas, parks, green spaces, wilderness areas influence resilience of urban socio-ecological systems to extreme heat across geographic and decision scales in a context of changing climate and social change.