Solving Climate Risk: Detangling the factors behind flooding in Warrenton, Warren County, North Carolina

Project Summary

The project focused on the Oak Chapel AME Church community in Warrenton, North Carolina, where repeated flooding has affected the church area and surrounding community. The goal of this community science project was to better understand the causes of local flooding and identify practical, science-based solutions to reduce future flood impacts. Over the course of 18 months, Community Lead Pastor Cathy Alston-Kearney, NC State University scientists, and community members collaborated closely with Project Fellow Dr. Tianyin Ouyang to develop the project and work toward its success. Project outputs included 1) in-person site assessments of flooding locations, 2) installation of rain observation buckets with QR-code surveys for community reporting, 3) modeling of stormwater flow pathways, and 4) installation of sensors in manholes to continuously collect rainfall and flooding data. The collected information supported the development of flood management plans and future funding proposals. Dr. Manmeet Singh will also use the data to build a machine-learning model to predict water flow pathways and future flooding events, helping guide infrastructure improvements. As a key project result, the team successfully secured Take It Further funding through the Thriving Earth Exchange program to support the installation of rain gardens in the church area as a flood mitigation strategy. The project connected the community with scientists through in-person visits, direct discussions, field assessments, and ongoing collaboration in language that community members could understand. The project directly engaged the community lead, the project fellow, at least four scientists/experts, and Oak Chapel AME Church community members through site visits, surveys, and discussions. Overall, the project accomplished its research goals, strengthened relationships between the community and scientists, and created a clear path toward implementing rain gardens and other flooding solutions.

Project Outputs

• Flooding site assessment for Oak Chapel AME Church community 

Scientists and community partners conducted in-person assessments of flooding locations around Oak Chapel AME Church in Warrenton, NC. This included site visits and discussions with Pastor Cathy Alston-Kearney to identify where flooding occurs and what community concerns needed to be addressed. The photos of the site assessment can be found via https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1zK1h-7kgjZY_f0Xfy9y19Ig9J00zF_4D?usp=share_link. 

• Stormwater assessment for Oak Chapel AME Church community

Dr. Vinicius Taguchi conducted an in-person stormwater assessment to evaluate how stormwater contributes to flooding around Oak Chapel AME Church and to model stormwater flow pathways in the surrounding community.  The assessments can be found via https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/19CP5E2lelk77kfBw12NyOia0IHBUm0MW?usp=share_link 

• Rain observation buckets and community reporting system 

Rain observation buckets were installed around the church community to help monitor rainfall and flooding conditions. Each station included a QR code linking to a survey where community members could report whether flooding was occurring. This created a simple community science reporting system for local flood observations. 

Station photos can be found via https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1DRc0U0KIVivoEGeaKZ_v7cwDsowgpkam?usp=share_link 

• Stormwater flowpath model/ map 

Dr. Vinicius Taguchi modeled stormwater flow pathways in the Oak Chapel AME Church community. This output helped identify how stormwater moves through the area and supported the development of flooding mitigation plans.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1rQrdXaOXt5SKflgO6nfVCfUCb0EBxi0x/view?usp=share_link 

• Manhole sensor installation and rainfall/flooding dataset 

Sensors were installed in manholes to continuously monitor rainfall and flooding conditions. These data will support flood management planning and external funding proposals for addressing flooding within and beyond the church community.

The data measured by sensors can be found here: https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1YUsRl9nb3nzdrKrrwA_LNeI6hK0KJzat?usp=share_link 

• Rain garden implementation plan 

The science team discussed with the community lead and developed a preliminary flood management plan based on site assessments, stormwater modeling, and sensor data. The plan focuses on practical mitigation strategies for reducing flooding in the church area, especially through green infrastructure. 

The plan can be found: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1oCD3VgRVtdp68-g1RyLDhYMOLj_LTepZ/edit?usp=share_link&ouid=115129509436619323416&rtpof=true&sd=true 

• Machine-learning model plan for flood prediction 

Dr. Manmeet Singh will use the collected rainfall, sensor, and flooding data to develop a machine-learning model that predicts water flow pathways and future flooding events. This model is intended to help guide infrastructure improvements and long-term flood prevention strategies for the community.

• Community-scientist partnership and engagement 

The project created a strong partnership between the Oak Chapel AME Church community, the project fellow, and scientists from NC State University. Community members connected with experts who explained flooding drivers in accessible language and worked collaboratively to explore solutions. Pastor Cathy Alston-Kearney emphasized that the scientists “talk the language of the town” and that the team made a meaningful difference in the community. 

The partnership pictures can be found here: https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/12Kclil_UG29Kl6tH8LQkUJX3LXfIk9sW?usp=share_link 

Community Impact

The Oak Chapel AME Church community benefited from this project 1) by gaining a clearer scientific understanding of the causes of flooding around the church and 2) by identifying practical strategies to reduce future flood impacts. In the short term, the project connected community members with scientists who conducted in-person site assessments, modeled stormwater flow pathways, installed rain observation buckets and manhole sensors, and collected rainfall and flooding data to better document/understand the flooding problem. This helped the community better understand how stormwater moves through the area and provided evidence to support flood management planning. The project also strengthened trust and communication between the community and scientists, with Pastor Cathy Alston-Kearney noting that the scientists communicated in ways the community could understand and helped residents learn about flooding from a scientific perspective. In the longer term, the project created a path toward lasting flood mitigation by securing Take It Further funding from the Thriving Earth Exchange program to support the installation of rain gardens in the church area. The collected data will also support future flood prediction modeling, infrastructure planning, and additional funding proposals, helping the community advocate for solutions that may not have been immediate priorities for local government. Overall, the project gave the community both scientific tools and renewed confidence to address flooding challenges and pursue meaningful environmental improvements. 

Acknowledgements

The team sincerely thanks  the AGU Thriving Earth Exchange program for providing financial support, broad guidance, and continued encouragement throughout this project. The team also thanks the Take It Further funding, which made it possible for the project team to move from research and planning toward implementation by supporting the installation of rain gardens around the Oak Chapel AME Church area.

Future Plans

This work will continue through the implementation of rain gardens around the Oak Chapel AME Church area, supported by Take It Further funding from the AGU Thriving Earth Exchange program. The rain garden will help manage stormwater runoff, increase water infiltration, and reduce flooding impacts in the church community and surroundings. The team also plans to continue using the rainfall and flooding data collected from rain observation buckets and manhole sensors to support future flood management planning. In addition, Dr. Manmeet Singh will use the collected data to develop a machine-learning model to predict water flow pathways and future flooding events, which can help guide future infrastructure improvements. Continued partnerships among Oak Chapel AME Church, community members, NC State University scientists, and AGU Thriving Earth Exchange will make it possible to move this work from research and planning toward long-term flood mitigation and community resilience.

About the Community

Oak Chapel AME Church community is a group of concerned local residents (grassroots) dedicated to protecting their historical church properties from flooding-related problems. With over 150 years’ history, the church as one of African-American-historic icons in Warren County, is a cultural and spiritual home that nurtured and empowered thousands of local citizens. The majority of the church community is African American, ranging in age from teenagers to retired elders. Surrounding Oak Chapel AME church are commercial properties (i.e., drug stores, Dollar Trees, and gas stations) and residential houses, predominantly located in the upper hills. These commercial and residential areas potentially contain impaired drainage and septic systems, leading to overflowing waters in and around the church. During rainy seasons such as spring and early summer, large amounts of water and associated runoff accumulate within the church areas, threatening the integrity of the historic church properties. The potential loss of over 150 years of history and cultural heritage is a significant concern. It is very urgent to study the factors (i.e., natural reasons or commercial poor drainage maintenance) contributing to these overflowing water problems in the church community and develop a plan to effectively manage the flooding to protect the church property. 

About the Project 

The priority goal of this project is to identify factors contributing to the flooding in church areas and surrounding neighborhoods, specifically investigating whether poor commercial drainage maintenance is the primary cause of the overflowing waters. The project team will collaborate with the community scientists to collect data and determine the dominant drivers of the flooding in church communities. The outcome of the project will directly benefit the church communities, support entire Warreton communities prone to flooding, and promote the development of water management plans that protect the historical properties. The project is open to working with local teenagers, providing educational opportunities to understand hydrology and nurturing future scientific leaders. Throughout the project, data collection processes and major outcomes will be reported in local online media (i.e., Warrenist TV Channel, Radio Station WARR, Warren Record, Henderson Dispatch, etc.) to raise citizen awareness of the flooding problems, support communities beyond the church to resolve overflowing waters, and educate local citizens in scientific aspects. The data evidence will also be shared with potential government agencies or officials to develop an effective flood management plan that benefits not only the Warrenton communities but also areas facing similar challenges. 

Timeline and Milestones: 

Phase 1: Set up scopes and connect with the community scientist (duration 3 months)

Milestone A: accomplish the project description 

Milestone B: recruiting a qualified community scientist 

Phase 2: Design the project (duration 1-2 months)

Milestone C: communicate with the community scientist and solidify the timeline/ goals of the project 

Milestone D: develop actionable research plans and estimate study budgets 

Phase 3: Launch the project plans (duration 10-12 months)

Milestone E: coordinate with all team members to ensure all goals are met

Phase 4: Post-launch reports (duration 2 months)

Milestone F: social media and necessary research papers/ publications 

The project team aims to finish the project within 12-18 months.

Community Leader

Cathy Alston-Kearney is committed to helping families thrive.  As founding executive director of Warren Family Institute, a family centered community development corporation, she worked for 20 plus years to help rural families navigate the challenges of chronically low wealth communities.  All of Cathy’s professional and personal endeavors are grounded in her faith.  She pastors Oak Chapel AME Church, a 154-year-old activist congregation with a mission to restore, empower, affirm and love people into living their best selves through a maturing relationship with Jesus Christ. She is also congregation coordinator for Living the Word Justice and Equity Ministry’s Warren Cohort. And she is the founder of Hope for Healing Ministries. Cathy and her late husband George have four adult children and “three glorious grandsons.”

Community Scientists

Caren Cooper, PhD is a professor of public science in the College of Natural Resources at North Carolina State University. She is author of Citizen Science: How Ordinary People Are Changing the Face of Discovery and co-author of The Field Guide to Citizen Science: How You Can Contribute to Scientific Research and Make a Difference. She contributes to field-building through her scholarship and supporting practitioners through leading co-creation efforts, such as the Data Ethics Toolkit and the Inclusive, Diverse, Equitable, Accessible, Large-scale (IDEAL) program. She created the Citizen Science Campus program at NC State, including a graduate Certificate in Participatory Sciences, a Citizen Science Project Incubator, and annual campus engagement events. Cooper led the committee to create the journal Citizen Science: Theory and Practice and serves as special collections editor (2020+) and associate editor-in-chief (2023+). She served on the Board of Directors of the Association for Advancing Participatory Sciences (formers the Citizen Science Association; 2017-2020) and currently on the Board of EarthWatch (2022+).

Manmeet Singh is Distinguished Postdoctoral Fellow at the Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, USA. He served as a Staff Scientist at the nodal national lab on weather and climate in India, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Govt of India for 11 years from 2013-2024. He was also a Fulbright-Kalam fellow at the Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin in 2021. His research interests include climate solutions to the problems on land, ocean and atmosphere using mathematical models, particularly numerical weather prediction systems. He is especially interested in AI/ML techniques, causal approaches, recurrence plots, complex networks and non-linear time series analysis for solving grand challenges in Earth System Science. He is an experienced climate modeller having contributed to the IITM Earth System Model simulations towards the IPCC AR6 report. Together with his PhD co-advisor, he developed and coupled the aerosol module of the IITM Earth System Model. He is active in teaching and has given invited talks at venues such as the NASA/UAH Seminar series, Microsoft India podcast among others. His PhD focussed on the impacts of the proposals suggesting volcanic eruptions as an analogue of solar geoengineering to halt climate change. Recently, his work has shown substantial improvements in high-impact short-range numerical weather predictions using deep learning and he has also developed novel physics inspired deep learning algorithms for high-resolution downscaling.

Vinicius Taguchi is a Stormwater Extension Associate at North Carolina State University, where his work focuses broadly on urban green stormwater infrastructure projects and helping communities become resilient to climate change. He is most passionate about implementing solutions together with communities in ways that empower them and prevent displacement through green gentrification. Vinicius also serves as the current president of the Twin Cities chapter of the Japanese American Citizens League, a civil rights organization committed to fighting for social justice for all those who are victimized by injustice and bigotry.

Seana Finn is a graduate research assistant at North Carolina State University in the Parks, Recreation, and Tourism Management department. Her research focuses on the use of participatory science as a tool for both environmental conservation and public education, with an emphasis on water quality issues and watershed management. She is particularly interested in community-driven data collection and using that data to help inform decision-making. Seana is eager to bridge the gap between research and practice by creating meaningful, collaborative partnerships with local communities.

Community Science Fellow

Tianyin (Tia) Ouyang is a doctoral student majoring in chemical oceanography at the University of Delaware. Her research primarily focuses on identifying the sources and controlling factors of chemicals (including nutrients, organic carbon, and potential pollutants) present in Delaware’s water bodies and aims to develop a conceptual model to predict chemical variations in estuarine and coastal water systems. Tia actively engages in outreach activities and serves as a co-leader of Citizen Advisory Committee outreach working groups at the Center for the Inland Bays to facilitate communication of research findings with diverse audiences on the benefits of achieving water quality goals, resolving community concerns, and improving natural resource health. She is very excited to extend her interests to becoming a fellow in a thriving exchange program and supporting community science research to make positive impacts. To find out more about Tia, see her personal website:https://tianyinouyang.weebly.com!

The Nurture Nature Center is a non-profit located in Easton, PA, that supports building community resiliency to environmental risk by leveraging the power of informal science education, art-centered approaches to learning, and community dialogue and networking. Started in response to flooding in Easton, NNC has over a decade of work related to flood outreach, education, and social science research. NNC is currently an AGU TEX Community Science Hub.